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Insights on AI strategy, modelling, and what it takes to put state-of-the-art models into production.分享 AI 策略、模型建構,以及將先進模型真正落地到生產環境所需的實務經驗。

Demand Forecasting with Supervised Learning: Does More Context Help?
Modelling模型建構8 Jun 20262026年6月8日

Demand Forecasting with Supervised Learning: Does More Context Help?監督式需求預測:更多商業情境資訊真的有幫助嗎?

A practical comparison of linear regression and XGBoost across 120 store–SKU series, testing whether promotions, pricing, marketing, competitors, and weather improve one-day-ahead forecasts.以 120 條門市-SKU 序列比較線性迴歸與 XGBoost,檢驗促銷、定價、行銷、競品與天氣資訊能否改善隔日需求預測。

18 min read閱讀約 26 分鐘

Demand Forecasting with Deep Learning: Does an LSTM Earn Its Complexity?
Modelling模型建構5 Jun 20262026年6月5日

Demand Forecasting with Deep Learning: Does an LSTM Earn Its Complexity?深度學習需求預測:LSTM 值得增加的複雜度嗎?

A practical comparison of a global LSTM with XGBoost across 120 store–SKU series, asking whether learned temporal representations justify the added complexity.以 120 條門市-SKU 序列比較全域 LSTM 與 XGBoost,評估學習式時間表徵能否帶來足以抵銷額外成本的預測改善。

18 min read閱讀約 28 分鐘

Demand Forecasting with Statistical Models: How Far Can Demand History Alone Take Us?
Modelling模型建構31 May 20262026年5月31日

Demand Forecasting with Statistical Models: How Far Can Demand History Alone Take Us?僅憑歷史需求,能把需求預測做到多準?

A practical and theoretical guide to forecasting iPhone demand with Holt–Winters and SARIMA—from backtesting and model selection to point forecasts.以 iPhone 隔日需求為例,實作 Holt–Winters 與 SARIMA,完整說明時間序列回測、模型選擇、殘差診斷與預測區間。

20 min read閱讀約 34 分鐘

Forecasting iPhone 17 Pro Demand: From Statistics to Deep Learning
Modelling模型建構28 May 20262026年5月28日

Forecasting iPhone 17 Pro Demand: From Statistics to Deep LearningiPhone 需求預測:從統計模型到深度學習

An Apple Store demand forecasting problem, solved three ways—Statistics, Machine Learning, and LSTM—to explore which model truly earns its complexity.以 Apple Store 的需求規劃為例,比較統計模型、監督式機器學習與 LSTM,說明不同方法在資料規模與商業情境下的適用條件。

14 min read閱讀約 18 分鐘